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J.P. Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist David Kelly assesses the state of the economy, American exceptionalism and more on Making Money.
Consumer confidence fell more than expected in November and hit the lowest level since this spring, according to the latest data from The Conference Board.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index declined to 88.7 in November from an upwardly revised 95.5 reading in October.
That was well below the 93.4 reading that economists polled by LSEG projected for November, and reached the lowest level since April.
"Consumers' write-in responses pertaining to factors affecting the economy continued to be led by references to prices and inflation, tariffs and trade, and politics, with increased mentions of the federal government shutdown," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board.
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The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell more than expected in November. (Thomas Trutschel/Photothek via Getty Images)
"Mentions of the labor market eased somewhat but still stood out among all other frequent themes not already cited. The overall tone from November write-ins was slightly more negative than in October," Peterson said.
Consumer confidence declined for nearly all income levels, as consumers earning less than $15,000 were the only income bracket to see an improvement in confidence even as they remained the least optimistic income group.
Confidence also declined across political groups, with the sharpest decline among independent voters. Among age groups, consumer confidence improved among those under 35 years old, but fell for those above that threshold and respondents aged 55 and up remained the most downbeat.
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The Conference Board's Expectations Index has been below a recession indicator for 10 months. (Joe Raedle)
The report showed that consumers' expectations about inflation over the next year remained elevated in November, with the median rising to 4.8%.
For 10 consecutive months, The Conference Board's Expectations Index has been below 80, which is the threshold under which the gauge signals a recession is ahead.
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Consumers were downbeat about inflation and prices. (Victor J. Blue/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
All three components of the Expectations Index deteriorated in November, with a notable increase in pessimism about business conditions six months from now.
The Present Situation Index also declined as consumers were pessimistic about current business and labor market conditions.
"The Consumer Confidence Index was much lower than expected in November, with Americans mentioning the shutdown, prices, inflation, trade, tariffs and the political situation as factors in the decline," said Raymond James chief economist Eugenio Aleman. "This result is in line with our weaker consumer demand expectation during the last quarter of the year."
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Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said that, "Despite the lapse in official job data, the weakening complementary metrics such as this one will put pressure on the Fed to cut rates in December and continue cutting in 2026."
